I know I said this...
I gave up Sundays and Wednesdays for a number of years, dug some fireline and cold trailed a few stumps… even called my self a fire suppression contractor for a while. However, I’m not going to qualify my opinion with who I am, instead I draw your attention back to those weather numbers posted earlier.
Simply put the numbers don’t show a significant increase in wind speed; as a matter of fact the winds recorded by Environment Canada were absolutely banal and yet there was a fairly significant jump in fire behavior.
The other facts of the matter are the Ministry of Forests Ministry was reporting good progress and that they would conduct burn off operations:
Aug 27, 2003 1:47 PM
All critical control lines held yesterday afternoon and through the night even with the increased fire activity in the lower Bellevue Creek area.
Increased fire activity developed in the late afternoon yesterday causing an increase in smoke. The spread of the fire was upslope to the south away from any structures. The fire activity in the Bellevue Creek draw is not contained; this is an area that is very steep and heavily timbered.
The south sector around Chute Lake, Glen Fir and Indian Rock remained stable yesterday and last night. Crews continue with mop up efforts in this area.
Aug 29, 2003 11:13 AM
The fire is estimated to be 70% contained. Fire fighters have been taking full advantage of the favourable weather conditions over the past few days and have made good progress establishing new and reinforcing existing control lines.
Some burning off may occur today along the eastern flanks to strengthen and secure the control lines. Kelowna residents may see an increase in smoke as a result of this activity. Burning off, which is an important tool in the fire fighting effort, will only occur only if both the weather and terrain conditions are favourable.
Aug 30, 2003 11:26 AM
The fire is estimated to be 70 per cent contained. Yesterday was another day where good progress was made.
Fire crews continue to establish control lines in an effort to secure a perimeter around the fire. Work is also continuing on the mop up activities within the established control lines.
Sep 3, 2003 2:16 PM
There was no significant fire movement last night; the fire is still estimated at 70 per cent contained. Control lines on the south, southeast, north and northeast sectors are holding well, crews continue to mop up and patrol these areas.
Control lines are being established on the east slope of Bellevue Creek, along the finger of the fire that ran to the southeast. If weather conditions are favourable, burn off operations will be conducted to reinforce these control lines. Crews will also receive aerial support, as they work to protect the steel trestle over Bellevue Creek.
The fire is four to five kilometers away from the Myra Canyon Kettle Valley Railroad trestles and is not moving any closer in that direction.
The weather conditions remain hot and dry with no chance of precipitation. Winds are expected to be from the south as a result smoke will probably accumulate in the valley today.
Again in overly simple terms… The fire triangle has three sides, fuel, air and heat. For a fire to happen you have to heat something flammable to the point of combustion in the presence of air. Increase or decrease any of those three variables and it will have the same effect on the intensity of the fire.
So in the absence of any increase in regional winds the only explanation that I can see is local winds, but the location of this fire hadn’t changed much in the previous days. Hmm...
Back to the way over simple stuff… Fire, when it burns is a rapid oxidization process and the by products of fire are heat, carbon, water and a whole bunch of nasty stuff. Heat is transferred away from the fire in three ways; conduction, radiation, and convection.
The only fire intensity variable that I have any significant proff of change in is Heat and that was caused by the MOF burnoff operation. No doubt in my mind.
There’s more, but I’ve been advised by a friend/firefighter/lawyer not reveal all my cards